Weather Blether

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. People have been trying to predict the weather since the 19th century. However, meteorology is not completely reliable, and sometimes it is downright wrong. Nevertheless, weather forecasting is more accurate than it used to be (5-day forecasts are now as accurate as 1-day forecasts were 40 years ago), and the Met Office claims to be about 90% accurate. Famously in the 1980s, BBC weatherman Michael Fish scotched rumours of a hurricane heading to England; only for us all to wake to the debris of felled trees, broken windscreens and genuine chaos in coastal town and on the roads. Admittedly that was an extreme case.

The British attitude to weather forecasts has always been one of ‘looks like it’s going to be a nice day, better pack our wellies and waterproofs, just in case.’ But recently, despite our traditional scepticism, the daily weather forecasts seem to have become weaponised, using fear-mongering tactics to push ludicrously exaggerated claims about extreme weather to the public.

Take these two photographs:

The top image is the weather forecast from 2017, and the bottom is from 2022; both showing the same area. The top image shows temperatures in the low 30s and high 20s, while the bottom shows temperatures mostly in the mid-20s. Despite hotter temperatures in 2017 (and no panic that anyone can recall), the obvious difference is the dark red colours used to portray lower temperatures in 2022. The same is occurring with alarming frequency during BBC weather reports, with ‘red’ temperatures invariably described as ‘dangerous’, even in the UK where temperatures are predictably drab. 

It is very hard to believe anything the BBC reports these days, including the weather. In June they reported a ‘cold spell’ when everyone was enjoying fine weather; they blamed this on a technical error. Then, to everyone’s horror—except people in Sicily—it was reported that the capital Palermo had recorded a record temperature of over 48°C. Looking back at the AccuWeather reports for the same day (14 July), it seems that the highest temperature on the island was only 30°C.

They also scare us by constantly stating that we are going to have the ‘hottest summer yet’ due to global warming. So far, this summer the thermometer has not even hit 30°C. As I write, the forecast is for 10 days of rain, with the highest temperature expected in the low 20°C region. In July, the temperature has been between 14-24°C; nothing close to a ‘heat wave’. We are told that when the heatwave hits it will be dangerous, and we should avoid going outside. Better advice would be to avoid listening to the weather forecasts and to take no notice of the bright colours used on the weather maps.

The BBC are dogged in their pursuit of climate change catastrophism. The current emergency on Rhodes, which must be terrifying for the people caught up in it, is being blamed on the heatwave and climate change. But in an interview, on 24 July on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, when asked by the presenter what he thought was causing the fires on Rhodes, the deputy mayor responded “Maniacs”, referring to the strong police evidence that the fires were being started deliberately. The thud of disappointment from the BBC presenter, presumably keen to have an “and there you have it, climate change is to blame” kind of response, was nearly audible. “Oh”, was all he could say before moving quickly to the next item. If only the BBC had an entire department dedicated to verifying fake news! 

Tuning to the facts, the evidence shows global temperatures have barely increased in the last 25 years; apart from a blip in 2014 caused by El Nino, an entirely natural phenomenon. Data show sea levels have been falling over the past 100 years, despite us being told they are rising; there have been 90 months up to this point without global warming and, in fact, a slight cooling of 0.14°C over the last century. And, far from melting, the Arctic ice is making a comeback.

The climate change shenanigans has to stop. What we are witnessing is just ‘weather’; sometimes it’s cold and sometimes it’s hot. Nothing to worry about.

Jack Watson has a Substack newsletter called Ten Foot Tigers about being a Hull City fan. You can subscribe here.

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