Ukraine: The Elephant in the Room  

There is much political noise about the Covid enquiry, stop the boats, the Rwanda plan and COP28, but the most important and potentially most terrifying topic is barely discussed. The war in Ukraine is at a crossroads, with a general lack of western leadership in the face of increased Russian aggression. Western leaders appear happy to bury their heads in the sand and hope the nightmare goes away, rather than step up to the plate and provide all the support that Ukraine needs.

The problem is that the nightmare is not going to go away. The Russian president has his population so cowed that, even with over 300,000 casualties and sometimes more than a 1000 of his troops being killed in a day, there is no sign of him being stopped in his arrogant waste of human life and resources.

If the west is unable to sustain support for an allied country that in its fight is protecting us from Russian bullying, then how is it ever going to manage to stand up to this bully should he decide, for example, to pick off the Baltic states? The NATO states have become comfortable and complacent; they have enjoyed the 1989 peace dividend and got used to raiding the Defence budget to pay for all sorts of voter treats. The chickens have come home to roost and with Russia’s economy now on a full war footing most NATO nations have yet to implement any sort of rearmament. In many ways it is even worse, in that most have been happy to supply equipment to Ukraine from their stores, but have not bothered to restock.

The United Kingdom is no exception to this having given generously initially then taken, in some cases, over a year simply to place orders to restock, let alone order extra to supply to Ukraine. Our present Prime Minister promised to spend the same amount supporting Ukraine as was last year, at £2.3 billion – this is just not enough. Do we really put such a low value on our freedom?   We were prepared almost without thought to the consequences to spend over £300 billion supporting the economy from the effects of a virus, while our commitment to supporting an ally’s defence against military aggression is by comparison, pennies.

Part of the problem is the complete lack of real leadership in the west. While Mr Johnson had many faults, as Prime Minister, he fully understood what is at stake in Ukraine and, while in office, galvanised NATO and the west into strongly supporting Ukraine. I am afraid Mr Sunak likes bathing in President Zelensky’s aura, but his commitment to the fight does not run deep. He, like his new foreign secretary, says all the right things, but fails to understand that you have to spend now on defence and support to avoid having to spend much much more later on. In the United States we see a weak President being held to ransom by the Republicans, most of whom see no reason why US resources should be spent on supporting a faraway country.

We can only hope that Western Leaders think through the consequences of this situation and it wakes them from their complacency. If Putin manages to achieve even his initial objectives of forcing Ukraine to cede all of the Dombas and Crimea this will be a victory to him. It will also demonstrate that NATO is simply a paper tiger. Whether we like it or not, though Ukraine is not a NATO member, we are so tied into its support that its loss will be NATO’s loss. US support for its NATO allies will also have been shown to be limited by the goodwill of Congress. My hunch is that NATO may carry on in name, but the idea of an attack on one being an attack on all will not hold should Russia try to attack Latvia or even Finland. I can already hear the French President and members of the US Congress saying that they have to give Russia an exit ramp.

The United States is isolationist by nature, most Americans have little understanding of the world outside their own state let alone their country. They don’t need us, and see little reason why they should spend lots of their taxes on defending us.

So what has to be done? While the US prevaricates, the UK must take the lead now and dramatically increase production of all sorts of armaments – both for our own armed forces, but also to keep Ukraine supplied with all its needs. In co-operation with other like minded countries, we have to start producing sufficient artillery, tank and small arms rounds to make sure that Ukraine can keep responding to the Russians. We also need to be building and supplying the armoured cars, tanks, aircraft, missiles and anti-aircraft systems to help them defend and attack. This is going to cost lots of money, but history teaches us that the costs will be considerably more later if we don’t spend the money now. Paying someone else money to stop an aggressor is surely better than paying in British lives should Putin, having successfully bagged Ukraine, decide to move against other parts of Europe.

I would also be tempted on a political level to create a special ministry to co-ordinate support for Ukraine headed by Boris Johnson and Ben Wallace. We need Boris’s charisma and Ben’s organisational skills to regalvanise the western alliance.

The West walked away from Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan through lack of commitment, we turned a blind eye to Russian aggression against Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea; this emboldened Mr Putin. In his eyes we are corrupted by our comfort and just don’t have the stomach for battle.

Is he right that most westerners would prefer cheap gas to freedom? I hope not, but I am beginning to wonder. I pity the people of Ukraine who have listened and perhaps foolishly believed all the nice words that have been addressed to them by western politicians. We must not let them down.

Alastair MacMillan runs White House Products Ltd, a manufacturer, distributor and exporter of hydraulic components to over 100 countries. He is a supporter of the Jobs Foundation.

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