Le Pen poised for victory

France heads to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the presidential election. This will be followed by a run-off between the top two candidates in a fortnight’s time. Until very recently, it was unclear who would have the right to challenge the incumbent, Emmanuel Macron. At the start of the Ukraine invasion, the National Rally’s Marine Le Pen and far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour were neck and neck; but that has all changed.

President Macron has lost most of his ‘war bounce’, while Le Pen has enjoyed a surge of popularity which shows no sign of abating. With Macron (26.5%) and Le Pen (23%) way ahead of the field, it is inevitable (sans miracle), that the two will once again square off in the second round; a rerun of the 2017 election.

Indeed, Le Pen’s performance over the past month has caused widespread panic on the left; panic exacerbated by the latest Harris poll, which suggests Macron will win by the slimmest of margins: 51.5 – 48.5% – the allusions to Brexit are hard to ignore. The markets are jittery (something Le Pen takes in her stride), which has forced Macron onto the back foot, urging his voters not to take the result for granted; he is right to do so.

Five years on from their first encounter, France is a different place. And although Macron crushed Le Pen (66-34%) last time around, that won’t be happening in 2022. The stars it seems have aligned for the rebranded MLP, granting her every possible advantage she could hope for; if she’s ever going to win, this is her year.

For a start, Macron is not the fresh-faced unknown he was last time. Long gone are the days when he could claim to be anti-establishment – instead he now finds himself fighting the moniker, ‘President of the rich’. He is also hoping to be the first president in twenty years to win a second term; a big ask when your approval rating is a lacklustre 37% (though in fairness, it has been as low as 18%).

There is also Le Pen herself, who has worked hard to soften her image – carefully dropping any mention of Frexit, and emphasising her personal life as a kitten-loving, single mother. With the rising cost of living domestically, Le Pen has been able to play it safe; landing clean blows by the promise of tax cuts. Her message has struck a chord. There are extensive reports of Macron voters saying they will be voting for Le Pen – unthinkable five years ago.

The much touted threat of the Reconquest Party meanwhile (which was supposed to split the vote), has failed to materialise. In fact, quite the opposite has happened. Instead of harming Le Pen’s campaign, Eric ‘ban Muslim names’ Zemmour has acted as a shield – keeping the issues she wants in play, while making Le Pen’s rhetoric look tame in comparison. Not only has Zemmour haemorrhaged votes to Le Pen throughout March, she’ll no doubt collect the rest of them in the run-off two weeks later.

The war hasn’t helped Macron in any sustainable way either. The bounce was short-lived, leaving him side-tracked from the campaign trail, and affording a natural embrace of the right that war always provides.

And finally, populism is still raging across Europe as Hungarian PM, Viktor Orban wins his fourth consecutive term. The public refusing to vote the right way has confounded pollsters of late. Brexit, Trump, and the Conservative Party’s 80-seat majority were all ‘not supposed to happen’, but happen they did.

Macron may be the bookies favourite as La République heads to the polls, but I wouldn’t bet a sou on him. If I were a betting man (I’m not, more’s the pity), I’d say MLP at 4:1 was just about worth a punt.

Bonne chance!