Hope for Reform UK?

(Photograph: Derek Bennett, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons)

Unlike the Tory and Labour pilgrimages up north, last Saturday’s Reform UK Party Conference was held closer to Westminster, at London’s prestigious Hilton Metropole. While the British media did not appear particularly interested, the turnout was certainly more enthusiastic than the Conservative sojourn in Manchester, where cabinet ministers were left attempting to rouse empty chairs and dead-eyed delegates.

Party leader, Richard Tice, has opted for the slogan “Let’s Save Britain,” and it has to be said that Nigel Farage’s former political vehicle appears to have polished up its act somewhat. Tice, who lacks Farage’s natural oratory skills and obvious charisma, seems more at ease in front of an audience these days. He made a nice early segue from Keir Starmer and Ed Davey clearly struggling to answer whether a woman can have a penis to the quip, “you’ll be pleased to know that I do know what a woman is!”

Positioning Reform as a viable alternative to the two main parties, Tice attacked them as one and the same:

The Consocialist Tories have broken Britain; Labour will bankrupt Britain, as they always do.  . . . The only Net Zero Britain wants is net zero immigration.  . . . The country needs a proper, credible alternative to save Britain, and that is what we set out to do.  

Notable speeches were also given by former Conservative Home Office minister, Ann Widdecombe, who highlighted the equal importance of targeting Labour votes: “Don’t ever let us forget the danger posed by Labour. If we are to effect change; if we are to see Reform effective, and taking votes, and winning, then we need to do it at the expense of both parties.” Rising star and newly-christened joint party deputy Ben Habib, focused on Brexit betrayal: “We don’t have to justify Brexit! Brexit is what it means to be the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.”

Dr David Bull criticised the wokery at the heart of the NHS: “We need to depoliticise the NHS entirely,” while London mayoral candidate, Howard Cox, took a swipe at Mayor Khan: “On day one, not only will I close down the ULEZ cash grabbing department in TFL, I will refund all fines and fees.”

The man everyone had turned up to see however, was honorary president, Nigel Farage, who many still view as de facto leader. Farage had questions to answer from the party faithful, particularly on the issue of whether he is poised to rejoin and even lead the Conservative Party. After his rapturous reception at the Conservative Party Conference, political opponents have speculated that his return to the Conservative helm is on the cards, with some Tory grandees practically begging him to make a return. Farage however, answered a resounding “No!,” during a speech which promised a shake-up at Westminster.

On the subject of Conservative voters, he commented: “they’re a lost tribe, desperate to believe in something; desperate to believe in somebody.” On his involvement with Reform UK, “My efforts will be solidly behind Richard Tice.” On the political landscape, “Right now, there is the most almighty gap in the UK political market. … This party has been bubbling away quietly just under the radar. … We’re about to move into new space, because of what was not said at the Conservative Party Conference, and what will not be said by Sir Keir Starmer.”

Farage has been keen to emphasise that Brexit is back on the agenda (and back on the logo). This is no doubt a smart move: reassuming the most successful element of his former political vehicles, identifying the crux of Britain’s immigration crisis (i.e. the shackles of the ECHR), and highlighting a clear disparity between the Tories who refuse to commit to leaving and Labour who seek closer EU alignment.

It would be easy to write the party off at this stage. After all, Reform has never managed to return an MP, and performed poorly at the local elections in May: returning zero seats from almost 500 candidates, and haemorrhaging half its councillors. However, such an attitude could be myopic. Here’s why.

For a start, as Farage says, the party has been “bubbling beneath the surface,” consistently garnering 8% of the vote which puts them ahead of the Greens, and just behind the Liberal Democrats (the traditional receptacle for protest votes); this they have achieved without any substantial commitment from Farage. Then, there’s the electorate’s disdain for both the main parties. While Sunak’s Tories are undoubtedly facing electoral oblivion, Starmer’s Labour is failing to connect with voters. Placed in the hands of a charismatic leader like Tony Blair, Labour would almost certainly have the Tories on single digits in the polls right now.

But more than anything, the fate of Reform is tied to Farage himself. Farage is the blue touch paper who can make things happen in a very short space of time. Let’s not forget, in 2019 he topped the Westminster polls with 26% of the vote—which would have placed him 20 seats short of a working majority. I’d be happy to wager every penny to my name that if Farage reassumed the leadership of Reform, he’d immediately command 20% in the opinion polls.

But then, why does he even need to? With Farage a mere silent partner, Labour stalwarts not only agree that the Tories are copying Reform Party rhetoric, some are going as far as saying Farage is openly dictating it. If Farage harbours any ambitions of leading the Conservative Party, he would be sensible to make his move after their inevitable annihilation in 2024. Then again, if he is, as he states, firmly behind Reform, there is no need to commit himself just yet. He is always a sufficient threat, lurking in the background.

Recent predictions of the next general election suggest that not only will the Conservatives lose every one of their 44 ‘red wall’ seats, they may hand Labour a 190-seat majority, the largest since WWII. The only question therefore, is whether conservative voters will stay home, or if they will show their support for Reform. The party expects to field around 600 candidates across the UK.

Will Farage make his move before then, or will he be content to lick his lips and enjoy the Tory slaughter?

Frank Haviland is the Editor of The New Conservative, and the author of Banalysis: The Lie Destroying the West.

This piece first appeared in The European Conservative, and is reproduced by kind permission.

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