The New Conservative Election Special

Ladies and gentlemen, the hour has come. After an interminable four-week general election campaign, mercifully spirited by the 100% proof charisma of Nigel Farage and the increasingly erratic behaviour of Sir Ed Davey (whose suicidal attempts to relieve himself of the Liberal Democrat leadership have been cruelly mistaken for bungee jumps), we have arrived at polling day.

Will Britain finally shake off the shackles of the two-party system, put the Tory party to bed and submit to the loving embrace of Reform UK? Or will she be content to leap headfirst out the nosediving aircraft, and crash to earth with nothing but the saggy pillow of Keir Starmer to cushion to blow?

If you will forgive the soliloquy, The New Conservative was established precisely for this eventuality and with this day in mind – to fight for ‘conservatives in heart, not name only’. Now, the electorate will have to do their part.

An electorate increasingly at odds with its representatives, for never has the divide between Westminster and the voters been so stark. Everyone knows what the British public wants it seems, apart from MPs & their bosom buddies in the media. For 14 years, the people have demanded the bare minimum of conservatism from their government:

• Sovereignty: secure borders and an end to mass immigration
• Low tax, small state
• Law & order: stop & search, and zero tolerance for knife crime
• An end to the scourge of wokery
• Equality before the law rather than special treatment
• Education not indoctrination
• The scrapping of net zero
• Free speech
• A functioning healthcare system
• Meritocracy rather than identity politics

For 14 years, they have been denied on all counts. It is time therefore for a reckoning, and that I believe is what we are about to witness. For my money, this election is about one thing and one thing only: the Reform vote. Here’s why:

People Want the Tories ‘Out’, Not Labour ‘In’

For all that Starmer’s majority may be a done deal, the Labour Party are still genuinely unpopular. Only 32% of the electorate think they will provide a safe pair of hands at the tiller, with 43% disagreeing. According to YouGov, the reason to vote Labour is overwhelmingly to evict the Tories (48%) as opposed to agreeing with Labour policies (5%). And perhaps worst of all for an aspiring two-term Sir Keir, an astonishing 60% of Labour voters say they are merely ‘lending Labour’ their vote.

Zero Seats

The Conservative Party deserves utter annihilation, for the contempt and deceit they have shown their voters. The short-lived thrill of revenge however, will matter less than the ramifications of such a drubbing – the closer the Tories get to zero seats, the more this will ensure a genuine right-wing party rising phoenix-like from the ashes.

The Muslim Vote

One of the imponderables in this election is how exactly the Muslim vote will play out. While the media has focussed exclusively on the right-wing split in UK politics, little has been made of the obvious indications that Islam is now flexing its electoral muscles and may be about to terminate its parasitic attachment to the Labour Party.

According to recent polling, Starmer’s majority could be dented to the tune of 20 seats due to ‘Gaza’ – an opportunity not lost on the bloodhound olfactory senses of George Galloway. Labour’s expected Muslim vote share is expected to be down considerably, from 86-63% – with 44% of British Muslims stating they would vote for an independent candidate who prioritised their side of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Polling also suggests the Muslim vote could be decisive in 129 of 220 swing seats – an issue which may soon be particularly relevant as groups like ‘Muslim Vote’ put pressure on Starmer to accede to their demands, or before an actual ‘Party of Islam’ gets past the vetting of the Electoral Commission.

Shy Reform Voters

The media sneers, ‘far-right’ labels, rigged audiences, and dirty tricks plaguing today’s election will undoubtedly have an effect on the outcome – the question is, which way? The Reform vote appears to have held up remarkably well throughout the onslaught, and may even be underrepresented. ‘Shy Tories’ are likely a thing of the past, but there could well be a significant proportion of Reform voters for whom announcing their intent is just not worth the aggravation. Don’t just take my word for it, even The Guardian seems to agree.

The Electorate Itself

Most importantly, have the people got the courage of their convictions to do the right thing or will there be a lot of slip-sliding in the lonely isolation of the polling booth? That’s the trillion nicker question, and why this election revolves around Reform UK. Are the public willing to take another gamble on Farage and guarantee a genuine alternative to Labour, or will they lose their nerve at the last minute?

Hold Your Nerve

Yes, Starmer will get the keys to Number 10, but this may only prove a temporary lease, on the back of margin of victory which is likely overestimated. There is zero reason to vote Tory, and the protest votes of the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are, if anything, worse than usual. I have warmed to Farage’s choice of election theme tune over the past four weeks, but I still think Reform would have done better to go with the old Elvis classic: It’s Now or Never.

Of course, there is no reason why you should listen to me, but as the Patriarch-in-Chief at TNC, I humbly suggest you send a message at this election – a message even the dullards at Westminster can understand: Britain is still a conservative country, and we demand real conservatism!

Naturally, you won’t get any of that with Keir Starmer. But what you just might get are the seeds of genuine change. Have faith, and put your ‘X’ in the only deserving box.

Vote with your heart. Vote for Britain. Vote Reform.

Frank Haviland is the author of Banalysis: The Lie Destroying the West, and writes a Substack here.

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