It’s a hard job being the world’s only hyperpower. You can’t just down tools after a heavy day of hegemoning and slope off to the pub for a good old moan with your colleagues. Not only does no-one really understand what it’s like, but you never get any down-time – there’s always something going on somewhere which needs your attention. Batman at least gets to chill out once he’s got Gotham sorted out. Like Superman, no sooner has America turned on Netflix than some crisis drags it away.
With great power comes great responsibility, of course, but there is a minor chronological irony that, at the same time the government is considering legislating to insist that employees get to switch off from their emails, it, along with Europe, is insisting America be willing to be dragged into the office at all hours of the day.
In the aftermath of Trump and Zelenskyy’s meeting which echoed around the world, the reaction has been instructive. It is one of those rare events which has “cut through”, commentators and private citizens falling over themselves to have their say. America has behaved disgracefully; we still stand with Ukraine, and the absolute bounder should have his state visit cancelled (a rare policy which unites the Daily Mail and the SNP). That will show him.
There is a curious lack of empathy about this, and it is striking that the criticism of Trump has been loudest from those who would hold themselves out as the “good people”, alive to, and respecting of, the feelings of others. When it comes to Ukraine, what is important to us must be important to everyone. In a strange inversion of the actual power dynamics, America’s job is to deploy its strength as Europe sees fit and to look happy about it, just as a slimy European mafioso tells Don Corleone, “All our ships must sail in the same direction” (he gets killed, it’s a Godfather film).
The “good people” are often the “sensible people” and members of the “reality-based community”, but for all the “Very well. Alone,” harrumphing of those cosplaying Churchill (geo-politics merely the latest field in which we pretend to be who we want to be, rather than who we actually are), there is an air of unreality about the whole thing. It is only a fortnight or so since we all believed that a peace-keeping force of 25,000 on the DMZ between the Koreas implied a peace-keeping force of over 100,000 for Ukraine since the frontline is five times longer; now Europe is talking about a 30,000-man stabilisation force. Presumably the Russians will undertake not to wriggle through the gaps.
More than just the practicalities, however, the whole approach of those busily “standing with Ukraine” (several thousand kilometres from Ukraine, of course) rests on a fundamental misunderstanding of America’s position. Like a small child, they regard it as an all-powerful, all- knowing parent (some have reached the teenage years where they just hate it) when, in reality, it is a strong, but no longer omnipotent power.
The long post-Cold War summer has, with the rise of China, given way to a chillier geopolitical Autumn. The People’s Republic may not be a full peer competitor, but it is close enough that America cannot be confident of victory and, in a war fought in the Middle Kingdom’s backyard, it might well lose (most war-gaming of an invasion of Taiwan sees at least one U.S. carrier on the seabed shortly after the start of hostilities).
Sadly, the chip factories of Formosa are more central to American interests than the wheat fields of Ukraine. The former are vital to the future, the latter nice to have. It is reasonable for it to concentrate its efforts on defending what matters. And it does need to concentrate – think tanks have been warning since at least 2023 that the war in Europe has run down stocks of some munitions to the bare-bones.
If it is to refocus (the “Indo-Pacific tilt” was a policy initiated by the Obama Administration), and Europe cannot take its place (which it can’t – Russia produces 2.5x more ammunition in a year than the entirety of NATO does), then the only option is to end the war on the continent and retrench. Far from being a symbol of American arrogance, the bust-up in the Oval Office is a sign of American humility. While European commentators are behaving like Scrappy-Doo (“Let me at ‘em”), the U.S. has come to recognise its limits. The bad temper of the meeting possibly being explained by the fact that no-one, least of all those with a certain amour propre, likes being asked in public to do what they know they cannot.
It is in this context, I think, not Trump as Russian agent or suffering from late-stage syphilis, that American “diplomacy” must be seen. For if it wants a deal, it cannot make a deal – only Ukraine and Russia can do that. And neither wants to – both want to fight on to complete victory. They will only come to the table when they believe that negotiation is the best outcome they can realistically achieve. The last month has been a sustained (and brutal) effort to show Zelenskyy that his options are not “bad deal or win” but “bad deal or lose”. Things went South in the Oval Office when it became clear the Ukrainian was looking to fight on. That might be in his interests (it might not, manpower is an issue), but it is not in America’s.
“There are no permanent friends, and no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.” The sensible people have forgotten their Palmerston, the long peace lulling them into a belief that was of interest to them was of interest across the Atlantic. And America encouraged them to do so, treating client kings as peers. But they never were. America has not become an imperial power overnight, it has just been forced to stop pretending it isn’t.
This is not an easy lesson to learn. Ukraine is the underdog, and we all root for them. Zelenskyy has successfully positioned himself as the Churchill de nos jours (nor does the failure of his Summer Offensive negate this – the great man had the Dardanelles and the Dieppe Raid). We have conditioned ourselves to believe that states invading other states is wrong and allowing it is appeasement. In the thirties, of course, Hitler was given the Sudetenland for free, Putin has lost hundreds of thousands of troops for his sliver of Ukraine. The latter has been checked, the former was encouraged.
For wars are always won by the strong guys, and only sometimes by the good guys. An unpleasant thought? Yes, but reality often is. We must deal with the world as it is, not as it was, or as we would like it to be. ‘Ought’ implies ‘can’, and if America can no longer, and Europe cannot yet, peace is the only option. You have to know when to hold ‘em certainly, but you also have to know when to fold ‘em.
Before the finger hits the keyboard and I get accused of being a Trump-apologist, or a Kremlin lickspittle, think back to The Untouchables and ask yourself, like Sean Connery in his blood-soaked, give-me-an-Oscar glory, “What are you prepared to do?”
Stewart Slater works in Finance. He invites you to join him at his website.
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I’ll tell you what I’m prepared to do – nothing – it’s none of my business and has zero effect upon my life. To quote a very wise post once seen on Daily Sceptic (in relation to Israel/Gaza, but applies equally elsewhere) ‘I hope both sides lose and everybody gets killed’. Now let’s concentrate upon serious matters affecting the UK on our own soil.
Well said Nathaniel Spit.