Farage Refusing to Read the Room on Islam

Nigel Farage has fashioned a political career from his reputation as an anti-establishment voice; the man who reads the public mood arguably better than anyone else at Westminster. From Brexit to his recent incarnation with Reform UK, he has successfully tapped into frustrations over immigration, sovereignty and cultural erosion. His achievements are considerable, and he deserves credit – particularly for the years he spent mocked and ridiculed by the ‘Uniparty’. Yet, Farage’s latest move suggests a glaring blind spot: Islam. The defection of former Conservative Party Chairman, Nadhim Zahawi – famously sacked for a “serious breach” of the Ministerial Code over his tax affairs – confirms a troubling pattern. With Zia Yusuf as Head of Policy, Laila Cunningham as the 2028 London mayoral candidate, and now the embrace of Zahawi, Farage’s top table has a striking preponderance of Muslims. This is almost certainly tactical rather than coincidental. But it’s a tactic that risks alienating Reform’s base, without gaining meaningful ground elsewhere. 

Farage’s strategy appears a simple one: play identity politics right back at the likes of Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor whose inability to deal with spiralling crime is matched only by the inability of the public to relieve him of office. By elevating ‘moderate’ Muslims like Yusuf (a successful entrepreneur), Cunningham (a former CPS prosecutor), and Zahawi (a self-made businessman), our Nige appears intent on ‘out-Khaning’ Khan – showcasing Reform as inclusive, while blunting the inevitable accusations of racism that the populist right attracts. It’s a pity perhaps, that Farage did not pay closer attention to the demise of the Conservative Party. Their selection of Kemi Badenoch rather than Robert Jenrick as leader – thanks to the irresistible protection afforded by the black/female victim card – has done nothing to stem the party’s collapse. It is unlikely to do much for Reform either. 

To an extent, these manoeuvres are understandable. Farage likely sees value in bringing along moderate Muslims to broaden appeal. Moreover, faced with the very genuine prospect of having to form the next government, it cannot have escaped him that none of Reform’s MPs have much experience in key government positions; Zahawi in this regard, may provide some reassurance. Jenrick, furthermore, is a genuine coup for Reform. As of this week, the Reform ‘Shadow Cabinet’ is already taking shape – with two of the four Great Offices of State going to Muslims (Zahawi as Foreign Secretary, and Yusuf in the Home Office). If nothing else, that’s DEI on steroids. 

It must be said, however, there is another, simpler explanation: naked appeasement. I have written previously on Farage’s Achilles’ Heel, Islam, and regrettably see no reason to change my mind. It is not so long ago that Farage famously opined: “If we politically alienate the whole of Islam, we will lose.” Against this backdrop, the recent elevations of Cunningham and Zahawi look less meritocratic than plain weak. 

Whatever his motives (and I’d love to be proved wrong), Farage is gravely misreading the room on the question of Islam. Reform’s success – a comfortable 10% lead in the polls for almost a year now – stems from unapologetic patriotism, and critiques of failed multiculturalism. Issues such as grooming gangs, integration failures, two-tier policing, and sectarianism are central to the party’s platform, and in voters’ minds, often inextricably linked to Muslim communities. YouGov polling suggests 87% of Reform voters view Muslim immigrants negatively, with 53% believing Islam encourages violence against non-Muslims; this rises to 70% associating the faith with violence overall. This isn’t fringe sentiment either; 53% of all Brits consider Islam at odds with British values. Farage’s ‘good Muslim’ optics clash directly with this, as well as the unequivocal statistics which demonstrate Muslims are vastly overrepresented in terrorism, child sexual abuse, and general criminal activity. 

The appointment of Zahawi is problematic for Farage, as the Tory grandee comes with an inordinate amount of baggage. Sacked and reportedly twice denied a peerage by his former party, Zahawi’s defection reeks of opportunism. And while the tetchy history between him and his new leader may just about be dismissed as badinage, Zahawi’s record: pro mass immigration, for which he once suggested an amnesty, and his role as vaccine minister where he astonishingly argued children should be allowed to overrule their parents’ decisions on the vaccines, are major red flags for Reform’s base. Particularly concerning was Zahawi’s dismissal of a sensible question over the safety of the covid vaccines, in a testy press conference exchange, as “really stupid”. This not only suggests a degree of arrogance, but indicates no lessons have been learnt from this dark chapter of government overreach. 

The Reform voter base has put up with a lot thus far. Many were sceptical of Zia Yusuf, despite his polish and acumen. They felt vindicated when he resigned over his spat with Sarah Pochin, after her calls for a burqa ban. Laila Cunningham is proving a bridge too far for many, based on her historic support for antithetical issues such as Pride events, transgenderism and woke poetry. Zahawi on the other hand, looks like Farage is simply taking the piss. Tough talk like promising to “destroy the Tory Party” sounds great, until you start moving retirees into the Reform nursing home. 

This Muslim manoeuvre by Farage risks failure on all fronts. While the Reform voter base is unlikely to stomach the Zahawi defection without consequences, exactly how likely is it that the Muslim bloc vote is going to embrace an outspoken, female candidate for London Mayor? Early Savanta polling for 2028 suggests a comfortable lead for Labour on 32%, with the Tories and Reform virtually neck-and-neck at 20% and 19% respectively. The irony of course is that Reform already had a perfectly viable and patriotic alternative in Ant Middleton, the ex-SAS star. This ‘appeasement over authenticity’ could backfire spectacularly, as Middleton will now run as an independent – thereby fracturing the anti-Khan vote. 

These recent appointments could wind up being Farage’s ‘Munich moment’, unless he gets some assistance with the YouGov polling courtesy of Zahawi. And that’s assistance he may need, as the latest poll puts Reform on 24% – their lowest polling since April 2025. It’s difficult to see how Farage reassures the base from here, unless he brings in a ‘bad Muslim’ to improve Zahawi’s PR – I hear Shamima Begum is available? 

Frank Haviland is the author of Banalysis: The Lie Destroying the West and The Frank Report, which you should probably subscribe to.

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Photograph: Owain.davies, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons 

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