Love him or loathe him, even Nigel Farage’s fiercest opponents would have to concede he has the Midas touch when it comes to triggering political earthquakes. Back in 2014, Farage steered UKIP to victory in the European elections — the first time in modern history that neither the Tories nor Labour had won a British national election. Five years later, he did the same with the Brexit Party — although this time, he did it with a fledgling outfit just six weeks old. Now, a decade on from the UKIP triumph, Farage has guided Reform UK to its first five MPs, more than four million votes at the general election, and consistent 30% support in opinion polls, thereby establishing himself as Keir Starmer’s de facto opposition.
The Midas touch however, was a curse to its original owner. It might be worth remembering that Reform UK has ‘only’ five MPs, whose collective experience of governing at Westminster is virtually non-existent; that the next general election is four years away (at least in principle); and that however unpopular Keir Starmer may be, he retains a working majority of 167. The establishment itself would do well to remember that too.
The establishment, however, is visibly panicked by Farage, and is clearly taking no chances. With Reform sitting pretty on 30 percent while the mainstream parties struggle to reach 20, a coordinated smear campaign against Farage is now in full swing. It was initiated by The Guardian, which dredged up half-century-old schoolboy tales that Farage used racial slurs and was antisemitic during his time at Dulwich College. At the time of writing, 28 former pupils have ‘felt compelled to speak out’, as well as the current headmaster, Robert Milne, who stated in a letter to parents:
“Allegations of racist and antisemitic conduct are profoundly distressing, and it is important to say clearly that such behaviour is wholly incompatible with the values the college holds.”
Given that the allegations are almost 50 years old, and that Milne joined Dulwich this summer, he perhaps isn’t best placed to shed any light on the matter.
The main parties, meanwhile, appear to be working from the ‘Everyone I disagree with is Hitler’ playbook. Former shadow chancellor John McDonnell recently compared Farage to the Führer, stating that Reform was a “proto-fascist organisation” and likening their asylum policies to the Nazi treatment of Jews. Deputy Prime Minister and amateur historian David Lammy claimed that the Reform leader had “flirted with the Hitler Youth”. Tory party chairman Kevin Hollinrake compared the Reform UK logo to Nazi swastika badges — a slur Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch refused to condemn. Keir Starmer himself was more circumspect, contenting himself with descriptions of Farage as “pro-Putin”. The Europhile Lib Dems, hilariously, refer to Farage as “a plastic patriot”, while the BBC opted for ‘guilt by association’ after highlighting Farage’s meeting with French ‘far-right’ leader Jordan Bardella. In short, they are terrified.
Smear campaigns are the establishment’s standard modus operandi whenever anyone dares question the status quo — and Farage, after all, has considerable form in this department. It was exactly the same during the Brexit years, when relentless personal attacks on him (“fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”, “xenophobic”, “far-right” etc) ultimately failed spectacularly, delivering instead the largest democratic mandate in British history. Today, Farage stands alone as the only heavyweight politician offering a genuine anti-establishment alternative on the issues that matter most to voters: an end to mass immigration, scrapping the costly folly of Net Zero, economic reform, and the full restoration of national sovereignty. The problem for Westminster is that, unlike the elite consensus, such positions are emphatically popular.
This pattern is hardly unique to Britain. All across the West, liberal democracies terrified by insurgent populists they cannot defeat in open debate, resort to the same tactics: demonise, delegitimise, destroy. Across the pond, Donald Trump endured years of ‘Russia hoax’ smears, relentless lawfare, and even assassination attempts, only to emerge stronger. In France, Marine Le Pen faced endless trials, bans, and media vilification. In Germany, the AfD’s success is matched only by the establishment’s eagerness to brand it ‘extremist’ and place it under surveillance. And in Hungary, Viktor Orbán is threatened with sanctions and stripped of EU voting rights for refusing to allow his country to be swamped by migrant quotas. The playbook is identical: when the electorate threatens to vote “the wrong way”, the establishment opts for smears rather than engagement. With Reform UK knocking on the door of Westminster’s cosy duopoly, it is understandable that he is getting the same treatment. Alas for Westminster, Farage is an old hand at this game.
Despite the blitzkrieg against him, there are three concrete reasons why the Farage smears are unlikely to bear fruit. For a start, the electorate has bigger fish to fry. Anyone even vaguely credible on mass immigration, the cost of living, and the prioritising of the British people in their own country, can and will be forgiven a lot more than playground indiscretions. Furthermore, post-Brexit the British public are wise to the fact that attempts to delegitimise the popular vote are an attack not on Farage, but the electorate itself – a final Hail Mary from a dying establishment. Lastly and most importantly, the evidence suggests a counter-effect: if anything, the Farage smears have bolstered Reform UK’s political ascendancy.
Guido Fawkes actually reported a poll boost for Reform in the wake of The Guardian hit piece. The defections show no sign of stopping either: three former Tory MPs — Chris Green, Lia Nici, and Jonathan Gullis — joined at the start of December; Conservative life peer Lord Malcolm Offord will represent Reform in the Scottish Parliament; and former Tory MP and Nottinghamshire County Council leader Ben Bradley jumped ship only this week. Reform UK has recently overtaken Labour as the nation’s largest political party by membership. And to top it all off, Reform has just won its first by-election in Scotland.
If further proof were needed of how rattled the establishment is, Labour’s recent decision to postpone four mayoral elections until 2028 — in areas where Reform was poised for strong showings — smacks of gerrymandering, denying millions a vote simply to avoid a Reform victory.
Whether Farage genuinely delivers as the ‘saviour’ of Britain remains up for debate. But the establishment’s hit job on him is so blatant as to practically guarantee him the premiership. The next general election, whenever it comes — 2029 or sooner — looks increasingly like Farage’s to lose.
Frank Haviland is the author of Banalysis: The Lie Destroying the West and The Frank Report, which you should probably subscribe to.
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This piece was first published in The European Conservative, and is reproduced by kind permission.
(Photograph: Owain.davies, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons)
