Most of the current debate in UK politics revolves around what happens to the Right after they lose the next general election, rather than the Left when they win it. Will the Conservative Party face mere defeat or annihilation? Will the Reform Party finally translate decent poll ratings into seats under Richard Tice, or will First-past-the-post prove their downfall yet again? Will Nigel Farage finally get on-board full time, continue to hover in the wings, or even stage a coup on the husk of the Tories, and attempt to lead them out of the wilderness?
The disproportionate attention on the Right is understandable, for the inveterate fence-sitter Keir Starmer is playing it safe and refusing to say anything. Indeed, if Mattel were to market a plastic PM Doll alongside Barbie, chances are it would prove the spitting image of Sir Keir. While standing for absolutely nothing, the man is a consistent 20-points clear of the Tories, and whatever political surprises 2024 holds in store, the general election scheduled for the second half of the year is not one of them according to the great and the good.
The bookies have all but shut up shop, with Labour odds on at 2/17. A Conservative majority is a laughable 12/1, and while you’ll get 100/1 for a Reform victory as opposed to 250/1 for the Liberal Democrats, I wouldn’t waste your money on either. Jordan Peterson concurs that a Starmer victory is “highly likely”, but is slightly more downbeat in his warning that Britain will be “Venezuela for 20 years” if he does romp home. Even Nigel Farage has grudgingly referred to Starmer as “a PM-in-waiting”. Cast-iron certainties have a nasty habit of failing to materialise however, and if a week is a long time in politics – six to nine months is nothing short of an eternity.
There is one man would could scupper Keir’s coronation – comrade Jeremy Corbyn, the far-left nearly man who looks set for a rebrand. While the rumours are still sketchy at this point, if true, they have the making of a genuine political earthquake. Having confirmed late last year he was ‘considering’ running against Sadiq Khan for the London mayoralty, allies of Corbyn revealed earlier this week that he is also poised to set up a rival ‘real Labour Party’ to challenge Keir Starmer.
As far-fetched as it may seem, all the elements are in play for such an eventuality. First of all, no one has greater motivation than Corbyn – having been made Starmer’s political scapegoat to drag the Labour Party kicking and screaming into the realms of respectability. Starmer suspended Corbyn back in 2020 to quell the accusations of antisemitism, which at the very least would have forced the former Labour leader to contest his Islington seat as an independent this year. In a continuous attempt to distance himself from the leader he formerly supported, Starmer is on record as saying that Corbyn was ‘never a friend’, and that ‘his days as a Labour MP are over’.
Secondly, both Khan and Starmer are unpopular leaders, despite their comfortable poll leads and the likelihood they will coast to victory. Khan has an overall negative approval rating, with over half of Londoners concluding he is doing a bad job, while Starmer is still failing to connect with voters, despite widespread Tory incompetence, according to Sir John Curtice.
Third and perhaps most importantly, there is plenty of room and energy on the far-left. The Muslim voting bloc has now swollen to such numbers that many are considering they no longer require the conduit of the Labour Party to represent them, and might as well do it themselves. Granted, the ‘Party of Islam’ failed at the first attempt to gain the Electoral Commission’s seal of approval, but it is unlikely to fail forever. In addition, Labour has haemorrhaged the Muslim vote from 71% down to just 5%, in response to Starmer’s refusal to call for an early Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
Friends of Corbyn have confirmed he will decide ‘within weeks’ whether to go ahead with the new party, but it is clear that he is hoping to capitalise on Muslim disaffection and ‘anti-war’ sentiments. In other words, while the rest of the nation looked on in horror at the spectacle of the pro-Hamas marches in London, Corbyn sat back licking his lips.
Of course, until confirmed these Corbyn rumours aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on. But a Muslim vehicle, headed by a willing patsy, could prove a nightmare for Starmer who already offers the Muslim vote bloc precious little in comparison. Reports of 30 majority Muslim UK constituencies may be an exaggeration, but in swing seats around Britain the Muslim vote is likely to be telling. Starmer naturally has dismissed the Corbyn threat publicly, but he is unlikely to be doing that in private.
It’s worth reminding ourselves a little of Corbyn the man, and what the implications might be of a Corbyn-led party. On terrorism, Corbyn has previously refused to denounce Hamas and Hezbollah, whom he once referred to as ‘friends’. He recently refused to call Hamas a terrorist organisation 12 times when interviewed by Piers Morgan, and it took him years to finally admit he met with members of the IRA. When interviewed as potential Prime Minister, Corbyn refused six times to say whether he would authorise troops to kill terror chiefs. It is reassuring then, that Corbyn has repeatedly declined to back the renewal or use of Trident.
It’s difficult to say what potential effect a Corbyn ‘real Labour Party’ would have on the political landscape. Certainly it would eat a fair way into the Starmer majority, and thereby not only embolden a clapped-out right-wing, but also make all manner of coalitions not only possible, but probably necessary. Would we see Starmer and Corbyn sat around the negotiating table, attempting to prioritise human rights for trans terrorists? Would the Tories and Reform team up once again? Would Farage finally emerge from his GB News bunker, and start to believe he could win?
On a personal note, I’d welcome Corbyn back into the fray. One, because it would force Starmer’s hand into outlining some semblance of policy. Two, because we want all these enemies of Britain wide out in the open; Corbyn would guarantee that.
My distaste for Corbyn is no doubt apparent, but I will say this for him – whatever you think of him politically, he has one redeeming feature: unlike Starmer, you know exactly what you’re getting. Jezza has never met a terrorist he wouldn’t get into bed with, an aspect of Britain he considers worth defending, or a Jew he’d condescend to squeeze a vote from. Regrettably in Britain, there are now many for whom those are admirable and electable qualities.
Frank Haviland is the author of Banalysis: The Lie Destroying the West, and writes a Substack here.
This piece first appeared in The European Conservative, and is reproduced by kind permission.
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Jezza has never met a terrorist he wouldn’t get into bed with….
You mean …. Diane Abbott Frank? ;o)